The quiet launch of Microsoft's public blogging service, Spaces.msn.com, is the start of something very big..mark my words :)

Note the global nature of the service--14 languages and 26 markets--and then consider the potential impact of an obvious next feature step: support for cross-language blog translation and links..Hello noosphere!

I don't expect the other blog platforms to remain far behind..the competitive dynamic will stimulate Typepad, Blogger, and others to bring multi-language features to the market sooner than would have happened without this stimulus, and will help make blogs accessible to people across the whole world..

But for Microsoft across the wider world, there is another advantage: The most used platforms for communication are in the developing world, for example, across Africa, are (1) hosted email--such as Microsoft Hotmail--and (2) hosted instant messaging. Msn.spaces.com works with Microsoft instant messaging, and with Hotmail. Hmmm.

I predict that Spaces.msn. com will rapidly become an important platform for the global second superpower of wired citizen activists..especially those outside of the United States, and most especially in the developing world.

The global introduction of Spaces.msn.com, by the way, is a classic "business ecosystem" play--when a particular market/landscape is already highly populated by competitors, find a way to spread your seeds and seedlings across other landscapes that are less densely settled..

In 1996 Bill Gates and I had a discussion about business ecosystems and business strategy, where he told me a story about Microsoft's first foray into spreadsheets, with a product then called Multiplan. Multiplan was conceived as a competitor to Lotus 123, with both running on MS DOS. But Multiplan failed in the United States, because 123 was already well established, and an entire ecosystem of complementary products and services had grown up around 123. Bill said that after some time, he finally realized there was no market in the US for anything but a direct clone of 123.

But he also realized that there was no French language version of 123, and that France was an open landscape for Multiplan. So Microsoft initiated a strategic program to transplant Multiplan to France. Multiplan became the dominant spreadsheet in France, with all the network effects that result from becoming a standard platform. Multiplan's establishment in France enabled the product to generate revenues and thrive as a business. The resulting profits and user base enabled Microsoft to improve and expand the product, foster complementary applications and services, establish a thriving ecosystem and learn how to be a steward of that ecosystem.

The Multiplan germ was prepared for eventual re-introduction into the US market, where Microsoft put in place a plan to change the landscape in a way that would disable 123 and prepare open ground for the successor to Multiplan. The landscape altering plan was to make the Windows operating system the new ground of the personal computer lanscape, replacing MS DOS. The disabling of 123 was accomplished by signalling to Lotus and to IBM that Microsoft would support an alternative groundscape, OS2, and thus luring Lotus into developing its next generation of 123 for the wrong ground.

Of course, the rest is history. Windows beat OS2, 123 was delayed in releasing for Windows, and Microsoft Excell, the successor to Multiplan, spread like kudzu vines across the US market.

Typepad and Blogger, take note.

P.S. I also expect that msn.spaces.com will establish itself in another relatively greenfield environment for blogs: small businesses. Many small business leaders like the brand association with Microsoft, the stability of a hosted platform, and the perceived longevity of the Microsoft offer. Plus, the Microsoft service is free.

P.S.S. Here is a good article on the launch of the service, in the Seattle Times:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002106573_msn02.html

UPDATE from comments, by tahirzaimoglu, in Turkey (He tried to put in a long comment on the site here at spaces, but was stymied, so he wrote this on his blog at http://the1andonly.blogs.com/:

1. Using Akamai services will definitely affect the performance [positively].

2. International versions must hit the market soon.

3. Spaces must be supported by all Microsoft channels including banners on Messenger and Hotmail, maybe some additional newspaper and TV work can be added for US and Japan market. I am a Turkish citizen I dont see any reason for TV ads in Turkish market and I believe it is same in all developing countries, Messenger, Hotmail and some banner campaign will attract enough users (maybe PC mags and tech magazines can be used for print ads). Again in my opinion the last hotmail.com.tr campaign was.. a disaster because.. Microsoft did not upgrade turkish hotmail holders and they are now moving to Yahoo!.

4. I believe revenue sharing can be added to Spaces. Money will atract much more visitors around the world and everyone will try to start promoting their websites therefore they will work for microsft too. Microsoft Wallet can be integrated to Spaces and with revenue sharing Microsoft wallet will be the biggest web credit card soon.

My reply would be that I totally agree, and that #4 is potentially huge!!! Ads and revenue sharing, especially in the developing world, would provide web-based revenue to small businesses and individuals that are among the most connected and progressive in their societies. For example, web ad payments to sites in China are thought by a friend of mine at Human Rights in China to be one of the most important things one can do to help the Chinese to liberty.. The same could be true in Africa, the Middle East, and other parts of the world. Now we just have to work with the US State Department to figure out a way to make the money transfers, and not be seen as shipping funds to terrorists. Of course, where MSN has a local service in the market, this might not be a problem..